Украинские резервы нефти и газа сравнительно малы; доля Украины в подтвержденных углеводородных резервах мира составляет только 0.3%. Тем не менее, среди европейских стран Украина занимает 3 место, после Норвегии и Нидерландов. В терминах эквивалента нефти, украинские подтвержденные резервы сравнимы с резервами Великобритании. В структуре украинских углеводородов, газ занимает 95% от общего размера резервов.
Украинские резервы газа в 3 раза больше чем у Мексики, в 2 раза больше Великобританских, и лишь в 2.5 раза меньше, чем у ее наибольшего поставщика газа, Туркменистана. Однако, с двое большими резервами газа, чем у Великобритании, Украина добывает в 4 раза меньше.
В даном отчете мы расмотрели 15 независимых компаний, занимающихся добычей нефти и газа в Украине, акции которых торгуются на западных биржах. Для оценки мы выбрали три наибольших из них: JKX Oil & Gas (наибольшая независимая, среди добывающих в Украине), Regal Petroleum (наибольшие заявленные резервы, из нашей выборки), Cadogan Petroleum (недавно осуществившая первичное размещение акций на Лондонской бирже).
Англоязычная версия отчета
Ukraine’s oil and gas reserves are relatively small; its share in the world's total proven hydrocarbon reserves is only 0.3%. However, within Europe, Ukraine stands #3, after Norway and the Netherlands. In oil equivalent terms, Ukraine's proven (P1) reserves are comparable with the UK. Gas reserves account for almost 95% of the country's total P1 reserves. Ukraine's gas reserves are 3x larger than Mexico's, 2x larger than the UK's, and only 2.5x smaller than those of its major gas supplier, Turkmenistan. However, with twice larger gas reserves than the UK, Ukraine currently produces 4x less gas annually.
In this report we look at foreign-traded independent oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) companies with a major focus on Ukraine, in total 15 companies. For purpose of valuation, we choose the three largest of them: JKX Oil & Gas (largest independent producer in Ukraine), Regal Petroleum (largest booked reserves in our sample) and Cadogan Petroleum (recently IPO'd on LSE, another company with its reserves/resources not yet commercialized).
1. Our picks for coverage
Foreign E&P companies with exposure to Ukraine(1): Stock selection
Selected stocks summary
Reserves & production - table
Key financials and relative metrics - table
2. Stock performance
Commodity-linked hedge against the local equity market
JKX and RPT vs. PFTS and FTSE - chart
Liquidity monsters: c.31% of total turnover in UA/UA-linked stocks
Monthly trading volume, 6M avg - chart
Market free float distribution - chart
Cadogan Petroleum IPO
Cadogan vs. Regal and JKX (rebased to 100 at the day prior to CAD's IPO) - chart
3. Hooked on energy imports
Oil supply '2007, MMbblpa
Gas supply '2007, Bcfpa
Domestic production, MMboepa
Share of independents, %
4. It's a gas play
World's proven oil & gas reserves - table
Ukraine's major hydrocarbon basins
5. Prices to double in the mid-term
Year-average gas price at the border, USD/Mcf - chart
Comparison of border prices, USD/Mcf - chart
Projected gas price netbacks to Ukrainian-Russian border, USD/Mcf - chart
Gazprom purchase price vs. selling price for Ukraine, USD/Mcf - chart
Gas prices for industrials, ex-VAT, USD/Mcf - chart
Price decomposition as of today- chart
Annual average forecast - chart
Price caps and ex-royalty prices: industrials vs. population(1) - table
Cardinal Resources' price realizations- chart
6. Ukraine's gas industry structure
Supplies at the border.
Key players in the domestic market.
Recent changes to the supply scheme.
Consumers.
Ukraine's gas industry structure - scheme
Pricing.
Key regulatory bodies.
Trade barriers.
Infrastructure
Ukrainian gas transportation system
7. Licensing and fiscal terms
Licensing
Risks: discretionary regulations, poor transparency.
Taxes
Key production taxes and applicable rates(1) - table
Royalty.
Other production taxes.
Prices net of royalty and other production taxes
Natural gas, USD/Mcf
Crude oil, USD/bbl
Common taxes
8. Peer comparison
Peer companies data
9. Company profiles
9.1 JKX Oil & Gas Plc
Investment summary
Business profile
Asset map
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate governance
Share price performance
Market multiples
Key ratios
Daily production (2007)
2P Reserves (2007)
Income statement summary, USD mln
Balance sheet summary, USD mln
Cash flow statement summary, USD mln
9.2 Regal Petroleum
Investment summary
Business profile
Asset map
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate governance
Share price performance
Market multiples
Key ratios
Daily production (2007)
2P Reserves (2007)
Income statement summary, USD mln
Balance sheet summary, USD mln
Cash flow statement summary, USD mln
9.3 Cadogan Petroleum
Investment summary
Business profile
Asset map
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate governance
Share price performance
Market multiples
Key ratios
Daily production (2007)
2P Reserves (2007)
Income statement summary, USD mln
Balance sheet summary, USD mln
Cash flow statement summary, USD mln
Appendix 1. 2007 production data
Appendix 2. Oil price forecasts (USD/bbl)
Appendix 3. Resources classification system
Appendix 4. Glossary and conversion factors