Несколько факторов делают Украину исключительно подходящей страной для сельского хозяйства:
- 1/3 плодородной черной почвы (чернозема) мира находиться в Украине
- Отечественные сельскохозяйственные компании имеют возможность заработать на экономии от масштаба, так как приобретение земли не ограничено, в отличие от стран Европы
- Преимущество благодаря низким производственным затратам
Ленд Вест обладает наибольшим пулом земель среди публично торгуемых компаний в Украине - 186 тыс. га угодий. В данном отчете мы рассматриваем бизнес этой компании.
Мы применили модель DCF и относительных оценок для определения справедливой рыночной стоимости Ленд Вест.
Англоязычная версия отчета
Several factors make Ukraine uniquely suited for agriculture:
1/3 of the world's fertile black soil (chernozem) belongs to Ukraine
Domestic agricultural enterprises are able to capitalize on economies of scale as land acquisition is not limited by low provision as in European countries
Low production cost advantage
Land West is Ukraine's largest public landholder, with 186 ths ha under control. In this report, we describe the company's current business.
We employ DCF and relative valuations to determine the fair equity value of Land West.
1. Investment thesis
2. Executive summary
Agriculture: Stock market sector emerges
Fundamental drivers support future growth
Valuation summary
3. Valuation
Valuation methods
DCF
DCF output
Relative valuation
4. The company
Company profile
4.1 Placement results
19% return since placement
Proceeds directed to support declared strategy
4.2 Key milestones
Land bank has grown by 22 ths ha since floatation
Machinery fleet – expanding in line with cultivated area
52 ths ha planted for 2008 harvest
4.3 Management strategy
4.4 Land holdings
Land bank: growth plan 80% completed
Time to buy
After the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land is cancelled, Land West’s management plans to buy out leased land.
Land appreciation potential
4.5 Land cultivation
Cultivated area triples by 2013
Yields – already superior
Another 50% yield buildup planned in two years
Organic crops as a competitive edge
CapEx program: machinery and grain silos
4.6 Profitability outlook
4.7 Legal structure
4.8 Management team
4.9 Risks
4.10 Market overview
4.11 Global rush for soft commodities
Prices will stay firm, high
Cereal stocks are falling
Demand for food & feed grain is strengthening
Biofuel is heating up demand for crops
4.12 Ukraine: Agricultural treasure chest
Benefits for agriculture from Ukraine’s WTO entry
Benefits for agriculture from Ukraine’s WTO entry
Land ownership conditions in Ukraine
Appendices
Appendix 1: Government subsidies
Appendix 2: Selected financial information
Appendix 3: Summary of projections
Appendix 4: Financial statements
Appendix 5: Peer comparison
Investment Ratings
CHARTS
Stock performance vs. UA CIU
Sector performance
Free float build up, USD mln
Current free float breakdown, USD mln
Current land bank location, ths ha
Land West stock performance vs. UA CIU*
Current land bank size, Land West vs. peers, ths ha
Average price for arable land, USD ths/ha in 2006 (unless otherwise stated)
Khmelnytskiy region
Zhytomyr region
Volyn region
Lviv region
Rivne region
Ivano-Frankivsk region
Land West’s cultivated area expansion, ths ha
Land West’s yields vs. Ukrainian average in 2007, mt/ha
Yields improvement, mt/ha
Financial projections summary, USD mln
Legal structure
Price dynamics*, yoy vs YTD change
Current prices*, USD/mt
World wheat consumption vs. ending stock
World corn consumption vs. ending stock
Brent oil prices, USD/barrel
Impact of crude oil prices on economic-replacement potential of biofuels
Global biofuel production vs. crop prices
Agricultural land, mln ha
Structure of agricultural land in Ukraine
Annual agro land lease rates, 2007*
Winter wheat yields in 2007, private companies vs. Ukraine’s average, mt/ha
TABLES
Market information
Stock ownership
Key financials, USD mln
Placement statistics
Fundamental drivers support future growth
Crop price comparison
1. Eternal land lease scenario
Sensitivity analysis
2. Land purchase scenario
Sensitivity analysis
Peer valuation summary
Detailed peer data
Net proceeds allocation
Machinery purchase details
Land to be harvested in 2008, ha
Khmelnytskiy region Region description
Zhytomyr region Region description
Ternopil region Region description
Volyn region Region description
Lviv region Region description
Rivne region Region description
Ivano-Frankivsk region Region description
Appendix 1: Government subsidies
Appendix 2: Selected financial information
Appendix 3: Summary of projections
Yields, mt/ha
Crops harvested, ths mt
Prices, USD/mt
Revenues, mln USD
Production costs, USD mln
Land purchase scenario. Income statement summary*, USD mln
Land purchase scenario. Balance sheet summary, USD mln
Land purchase scenario. Cash flow statement summary, USD mln
Land purchase scenario. UAH/USD Exchange rates
Eternal land lease scenario. Income statement summary*, USD mln
Eternal land lease scenario. Balance sheet summary, USD mln
Eternal land lease scenario. Cash flow statement summary, USD mln
Eternal land lease scenario. UAH/USD Exchange rates
Peer comparison