Расположенный близко к емкому рынку Западной Европы, быстро растущим рынкам СНГ, Центральной и Восточной Европы, АрселорМиттал Кривой Рог может использовать свое преимущество, чтобы улучшить свою позицию внутри наибольшей сталелитейной группы мира.
Мы видим АрселорМиттал Кривой Рог как важную часть стратегии АрселорМиттал:
(1) увеличить самодостаточность в железной руде до 85% к 2015
(2) усилить лидирующие позиции в Западной Европе
(3) усилить позиции на быстро растущих рынках
Топ-менеджмент АрселорМиттал Кривой Рог, назначенный в начале 2008-го, намерен освоить 2 млрд дол США инвестпрограммы для производства железной руды и запуска новой линии продуктов к 2014.
У АрселорМиттал Кривой Рог самые низкие производственные затраты среди торгующихся украинских сталелитейных заводов и одни из самых низких среди группы АрселорМиттал.
Для получения справедливой цены АрселорМиттал Кривой Рог, мы применили следующие подходы: сравнение со схожими компаниями, оценку по частям и моделирование DCF.
Англоязычная версия отчета
Located close to capacious Western European, fast growing CIS, Central and Eastern European markets, ArcelorMittal Kryviy Rih can leverage its upstream advantage to continue bolstering its position within the world's largest steel group.
We see ArcelorMittal Kryviy Rih as a vital part of ArcelorMittal's (AM) strategy:
(1) increase iron ore self-sufficiency to xx% by 2015
(2) reinforce leadership in Western Europe
(3) strengthen presence in fast growing markets
The ArcelorMittal Kryviy Rih management team, appointed in early 2008, has the tailored background to execute a USD xx bln investment program designed to develop xx bln mt in iron ore resources and launch flat products by 2014.
ArcelorMittal Kryviy Rih has the lowest production cost among traded Ukrainian steel mills and is among most the cost-efficient producers within ArcelorMittal.
When deriving the fair value of AM Kryviy Rih, we employed the following approaches: peer comparison, sum-of-the-parts and DCF modeling.
1. Stock market
Steels at a glance
KSTL as a defensive play on the bearish Ukrainian market
Share buybacks by ArcelorMittal
AM Kryviy Rih as a dividend play?
2. Juncture for upstream & downstream expansion
New management team brought into the fold
+60% to iron ore output, eyeing oxidized ore resources
+47% to steel production, broadening product profile
Regional hub for the group's growth
3. Margin expansion on low cost and strong prices
Profitability: above industry average, will strengthen in 2008
Cash costs will stay below the industry average
Revenues will rise along with a strong up-cycle
4. Steel market: Robust demand vs. supply constraints
5. Valuation
Comparison by financial multiples
Comparison to ArcelorMittal-labelled companies
EV/Steel Output multiple comparison
Sum-of-the-parts valuation
DCF valuation
DCF models
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
6. Appendices
Iron ore seaborne market concentration and historical prices
Quarterly financial statements
Income statement summary, USD mln
Balance sheet summary, USD mln
Projected financials
Income statement summary, USD mln
Balance sheet summary, USD mln
UAH/USD Exchange Rates
Despite SPF's claim, reprivatization risk is low
Analyst Certification
ArcelorMittal Kriviy Rih*
KSTL Recommendation history, USD per share
Investment Ratings
CHARTs
AM Kryviy Rih vs. S&P World Steel Index
Sector performance, %
Daily P/E
Forward-looking market multiples
AM Kryviy Rih vs PFTS-index
Estimated annual production, ths mt
ArcelorMittal - Global steel leader
Global top-10 steel producers in 2007, mln mt
AM Kryviy Rih's product mix, 2007
AM Kryviy Rih's export destinations, 2007
Steel producers' profitability
EBITDA margin 2007
Input self-sufficiency, %
Ukrainian steel prices, USD/mt
Ukrainian steel price growth, %
World steel apparent demand, mln mt
Steel industry operational capacity utilization
Chinese crude steel production growth rate, %
AM Kryviy Rih implied prices, USD per share
P/E vs. Net income growth
EV/S vs. EBITDA margin
Implied AM Kryviy Rih price, USD per share
Sum-of-the-parts value of AM Kryviy Rih, USD mln
Concentration of iron ore suppliers on the global seaborne market
Iron ore price, USD cents per 1% Fe*
KSTL Recommendation history, USD per share
TABLEs
Market information
Corporate Governance
Shareholders
Steel company dividends
Investment program and production targets by 2014
Comparison by financial multiples
EV/Steel Output multiple comparison
Acquisitions multiples
DCF Key model assumptions
Ukrainian export steel prices (spot)
DCF models
Sensitivity of AM Kryviy Rih's 12M equity value, UAH mln
Income statement summary, USD mln
Balance sheet summary, USD mln
Projected financials. Income statement summary, USD mln
Projected financials. Balance sheet summary, USD mln
UAH/USD Exchange Rates
ArcelorMittal Kriviy Rih